For months, concerns have grown that the war in Gaza could trigger another conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the well-armed militia that is loosely allied with Hamas and based on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
The two sides have traded repeated strikes since the Gaza war began in October, killing civilians and fighters in Lebanon and Israel, with the majority of civilian casualties in Lebanon. Hostilities have forced more than 150,000 people from both sides of the border to flee their homes for temporary shelters. It has pushed the Israeli government to push Hezbollah back from the border region and make the north of the country safe for residents again.
Here’s a look at Hezbollah as it teeters on the brink of a new war and why it can be avoided.
What is Hezbollah?
Hezbollah has opposed Israel since the group’s inception. It was founded in the 1980s, after Israel responded by invading and occupying southern Lebanon, intending to root out the Palestine Liberation Organization, which was based in the country at the time.
But Israel soon ran into a new enemy, whose guerrilla fighters quickly became effective at decimating the well-armed Israeli forces: Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim populist movement that made the main goal of driving Israel out of Lebanon.
By 2000, Israel had withdrawn from Lebanon, making Hezbollah a hero to many Lebanese. It fought Israel again in 2006, launching military operations in its southern neighbor that led to a fierce counterattack. In that war, Israel bombed southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut; More than 1,000 Lebanese were killed in the fighting.
Still, the Israeli military never succeeded in defeating Hezbollah in the 34-day war, allowing the group and its leader Hassan Nasrallah to emerge as stars in an Arab world wearily accustomed to being defeated by Israel.
Hezbollah soon aligned itself with Iran, and they became close partners.
Although the group maintains a large and loyal following among Shiite Muslims because of the social services and political power it provides them – as well as the authoritarian tactics it uses to suppress any dissent – many Lebanese see the group as an obstacle to progress that threatens is To drag the country into an unwanted war.
Hezbollah, considered a terrorist group by the United States and other countries, has evolved from a militant force into a dominant political one, gaining significant influence in Lebanon’s government.
Today, Lebanon is politically deadlocked, but few major changes can happen without Hezbollah’s approval.
What would a full-scale war mean for Lebanon?
Lebanon can hardly afford a new conflict with Israel.
The country is grappling with years of an economic crisis that has left countless Lebanese in poverty and a political one that has stripped citizens of many basic services. The crackdown on the border has displaced nearly 100,000 Lebanese citizens, deprived many of their income and their homes, and cost the country billions of dollars in lost tourism and agricultural revenue, Lebanese officials say.
Lebanon can also count on less international support with its former colonial power, France, distracted from internal politics, said Emil Hokaim, an expert on Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Other Arab states and Iran, which poured money into rebuilding Lebanon after 2006, have been less willing or able to help.
“It was already difficult in 2006, when the economic situation and Lebanon’s international position were much better,” Mr. Hokayem said. “The country is not in a position to deal with this conflict.”
Some of Hezbollah’s traditionally loyal Shiite Muslim constituents in southern Lebanon are also questioning the cost of the current fighting. As a result, analysts say, Mr. Nasrallah knows he has to tread carefully. He has said that Hezbollah does not want a wider conflict, while warning that its fighters are ready for one – and that Israel will face dire consequences if it comes.
“If war is imposed, the resistance will fight without constraints, rules or limitations,” Mr. Nasrallah said in a speech two weeks ago.
The Hezbollah-Israel war could also turn into a larger regional war that would dwarf the ongoing fighting. Such a conflict could draw in Iran, as well as the United States, which is working to avoid further escalation.
Analysts and U.S. officials say Israel, Hezbollah and Iran do not want an all-out war, even as fears grow with the frequency and timeframe of each side’s attacks. Still, they say, the only near-certain way to avoid one is to end the fighting in Gaza with a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, whose Oct. 7 attack sparked a war in the enclave.
How strong is Hezbollah?
Through propaganda videos and calibrated strikes, Hezbollah repeatedly A wholesale arsenal Analysts say it is capable of inflicting heavy damage on Israeli cities. Its forces are also battle-tested after years of fighting rebels in Syria, where Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters during that country’s civil war to aid the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Iran and Hezbollah.
Iran-backed militia fighters in Iraq could also join the fight if Israel attacks Lebanon, said Mr. Hokayem, a Middle East expert.
Estimates vary about how many missiles Hezbollah has and how sophisticated its systems are. The Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook says the group may have more than 150,000 missiles and rockets of various types and ranges. It also estimates that the group has as many as 45,000 fighters, although Mr. Nasrallah has claimed 100,000.
But analysts and Israeli officials say Hezbollah’s arsenal is significantly more dangerous than Hamas’s because of its precision-guided missiles, which can target vital Israeli infrastructure and military assets.
Hezbollah has also displayed explosive drones that can take out Israel’s Iron Dome, a detect-and-shoot-down system designed to protect the country from incoming rockets and missiles. The group also has anti-tank missiles that fly too fast and too low to intercept the Iron Dome.
Mr. Nasrallah warned in his speech two weeks ago that Hezbollah has so far used only a small portion of its weapons. If necessary, he said, Hezbollah could launch them on a precision strike on a “bank of targets.”
“The enemy knows he must expect us on land, in the air and at sea,” he said.
Some in Israel are wary of exposing their country to such an arsenal. But others argue that Israel must do something before Hezbollah becomes stronger.
“The dilemma the Israelis find themselves in is that Hezbollah seems to have reached a level of capability where it is arguably not worth it for the Israelis to open a major conflict,” said Sam Heller, a Beirut-based analyst at Century International.
Yuan Ward Contribution report.