Joe Biden has refused to drop out of the presidential race, even as some liberals, rattled by the incumbent’s terrible debate performance last week, continue to pressure him to do so.
Who was surprised by that?
The inertia of presidential campaigns is one of the most powerful forces in politics. Once a party’s nomination is secured it is almost impossible to end one. The candidate is already strapped into the rocket.
Moreover, all serious presidential contenders, especially those who hold or already hold office—this year, we have both—have a God complex. They must. And doubt does not exist in the presence of God. Biden is surrounded by a throng of advisers, boosters and confidants to assuage that doubt; To introduce it is blasphemy.
Biden can’t be kicked out of the race; He has to be persuaded to leave it. And that event, though not impossible, is “never!” lives next to
And staying the Biden course may be the best course.
American University historian Alan Lichtman, who predicts the results of the presidential election, told me on Sunday that it would be a “tragic mistake for Democrats” to push Biden out of the race, because he believes it is his party’s best chance to win the presidency. election
As for the alternatives, Lichtman adds, “It’s not like there’s some, you know, JFK out there just waiting to jump on a white horse and save the Democratic Party.”
I agree with him: there is no potential replacement who would stand a better chance of defeating Donald Trump than Biden.
Yes, a CNN-SSRS voting Vice President Kamala Harris fared slightly better than Biden against Trump, within a margin of error but still trailing in what appeared to be days of debate. (But note that the brand new Reuters-Ipsos voting Only one third is seen Democrats (Looks like Biden should get out.)
If Biden is replaced, yes, Harris will be the Democrats’ safest option. But approval ratings and standings in a poll may be a bit of a mirage before she becomes a real candidate.
During Hillary Clinton’s term In the Senate And her tenure As Secretary of State She enjoyed solid approval ratings, but when she ran for president against Trump, her approval numbers gradually declined.
There were many reasons for this, and one of them, I am sure, is the patriarchal nature of our society. For Harris it will likely repeat itself, only this time amplified by the twin evils of patriarchy: racism.
Harris is competent and capable, regardless of what his soiling opponents suggest, but unfortunately, I don’t believe he’s any more selective than Biden in the current climate.
Yet if Biden stands aside and Harris is passed over in favor of another candidate, there will be fierce opposition from his legions of Democratic supporters, many of whom are black women, an essential voting bloc for a Democratic victory.
On top of that, a free-for-all selection process would be absolute chaos. Groups would compete fiercely, egos would be bruised, and convention delegates would choose a candidate, effectively bypassing direct participation of Democratic voters.
All of this will play out just months before Election Day, and opposition pollsters will have the day to vet a list of potential Democratic options, many of whom are governors with only regional name recognition, raising the possibility of a disastrous October surprise.
To be clear: I’m not saying that Biden should continue to run because eventual victory is assured. it’s not. He was struggling before the debate kerfuffle and will continue to struggle if he survives.
Trump’s support has declined while Biden’s has risen. Many Americans have not felt the benefits of what is a structurally sound Biden economy, and a young, activist part of the Democratic base is angry about Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.
I, like many others, wish Biden hadn’t sought another term. I want the Democratic nominee to be a young visionary.
But retroactive desire is useless.
Biden is the candidate of the Democratic Party. He is the only person standing between us and Trump’s destructive, vindictive impulses and the ever-increasing latitude the Supreme Court has granted him.
The fact that an 81-year-old is increasingly showing signs of being an 81-year-old doesn’t scare me; Trump has indicated he will do it with a second term.
There is another way that Biden’s call for withdrawal could backfire on liberals. One of my favorite TV lines comes from Omar on “The Wire,” explaining to Emerson: “You come to the King, you don’t miss.” A failed attempt to usurp a man in power risks his revenge.
But I’m thinking of that line another way as it relates to Biden. By making the case for Biden’s incompetence and the need for his capitulation — without convincing him of the same — liberals risk further injuring their standard-bearer and increasing the likelihood of the very thing they try hardest to avoid: Trump’s re-election.
And should Biden decide to drop out of the race, as The Times reported Wednesday that he is considering, his withdrawal would only add credence to the idea that some Democrats had, in effect, conspired to cover up an improper defection and only gave way when forced to. was changed . This will taint the party and any replacement candidate.
Instead of paving the way to victory, liberals may be paving the way to defeat.