After last week’s debate disaster, some Democrats are trying to circle the wagons to save President Biden, noting that Barack Obama also lost his first debate as president.
But this doesn’t pass the smell test. Mr. Obama was not 81 at the time of his debate defeat. And he came into the polls as a strong favorite, while Mr. Biden trailed (with just 35 percent A chance to win).
A 35 percent chance is nothing. But Mr. Biden needed to shake up the race, not just maintain the status quo. Instead, he has dug himself a deep hole.
Looking at the polls beyond the number of straight horse races between Mr. Biden and Donald Trump — including the race for Democratic Senate candidates in close swing-state races — suggests something more troubling about Mr. Biden’s chances, but also offers a glimmer of hope. For the Democrats.
You don’t need another pundit to tell you that Mr. Biden should drop out of the race, though I am among those who emphatically do. Guess he should. But Democrats should be more open to what the polls are telling them — and again, not just the Biden-Trump polls. There is a silver lining for Democrats in these surveys. In this poll, voters choose the Democratic candidates for Congress. More than fines, actually: it’s Mr. Biden who’s the problem.
The data are remarkably consistent. There are five presidential swing states with highly competitive Senate races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Sorry, Florida and Ohio are no longer considered swing states — and Texas isn’t one yet.) In those states, 47 nonpartisan surveys have been conducted since Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump emerged as clear of their parties. Nominated in March.
In 46 of 47 polls, the Democratic Senate candidate polled better than Mr. Biden. He and the Senate candidate did equally well in one poll. Which means Mr. Biden has not outpolled the Senate candidate in any survey. (I use the versions of polls among likely voters, and include the version with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. if the pollster made it available.)
None of the 47 polls — not one of them — showed the Democratic candidate trailing in the Senate race, though two showed a tie. By contrast, Mr. Biden led in just seven surveys, tied with Mr. Trump in two and trailed in 38 others.
This contrast is remarkably consistent in blue-chip surveys, which question whether voters should have some concerns and everything in between. And the difference is not just at the margins. Mr. Biden is trailing the Democratic Senate nominee by five points in Michigan, seven points in Wisconsin, eight points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Arizona and 13 points in Nevada.
Unfortunately, Democrats, once inclined to ignore the pundits and trust the data, have now emerged on public opinion surveys. Contrary to what many of them – including those in the White House – would say, the polls were quite accurate In 2022. Voting skepticism is a shame, because in a democracy, voting is an important way to let the public vote once every two to four years.
And for at least a year now, polls have been overwhelmingly consistent in showing that voters believe Mr. Biden is too old to serve another term.
But surveys like the one above are important for two reasons. First, they make it much less likely that there is some sort of systematic bias in the surveys. Pollsters are getting plenty of Democratic voters, just not enough Biden voters. And second, these Senate candidates are known to voters in their states and run in real races, not imaginary matchups, like other potential Democratic presidential candidates that pollsters occasionally test. Relatively unknown candidates generally underperform in surveys.
If you made me a Democratic superdelegate, I would probably vote for a candidate who has proven her or his ability in a swing state, such as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, or Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia (although Mr. Warnock is running for president). (which would cost Democrats a Senate seat). Or I’ll take my chances on a member of a new generation of leaders like Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
What if you’re convinced that the overall political climate — even without Mr. Biden — is actually pretty good for Democrats? In recent years, the party has won more than its fair share of special elections. He could call on someone like Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who would at least project a quiet Midwestern competence compared to Mr. Trump. And if the party really wanted to show itself as the adults in the room, it could nominate Vice President Kamala Harris, whose approval rating is now significantly less bad than her boss’s.
But pundits don’t get to choose. Representatives do – and they should – listen to voters.
To overcome the obvious problem—the Democratic primary is over—here’s an idea. It’s not ideal, but I want a Democrat who can give the party a fighting chance. Even if the replacement candidate’s chances are below 50 percent, the important thing is that he or she could probably poll better than Mr. Biden.
Party may hold open auditions for nomination process. The candidates who raised their hands used to debate each other two or three times. He could give speeches and hold rallies. And Democrats can vote in donor-sponsored straw polls in a combination of virtual locations and physical locations that reflect the demographic breadth of the Democratic Party — in, say, Atlanta, Phoenix, Pittsburgh and one or two more rural locations. Voters will also express their views in regular opinion polls.
Delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago can consider this information and make a more informed decision. The plan would require Mr. Biden to announce his intention to drop out of the race sooner rather than later.
It’s not a great plan. But no grand plan remains. At this point, any Democrat would be the underdog for Mr. Trump. Not because Mr. Trump is popular, which he is not, but because it is hard to imagine a replacement who is fully prepared for the race. This candidate will still have to answer for some of the problems, like inflation, that happened on the Democrats’ watch. Additionally, the party’s current coalition puts it at a significant Electoral College disadvantage.
Skilled risk-takers like myself, from poker players and astronauts to venture capitalists I’ve spoken to for my research, understand the importance of working with incomplete information. And they understand that sometimes doing nothing is the riskiest plan.
Nate Silver, founder and former editor of FiveThirtyEight and author of the upcoming book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” writes the newsletter Silver Bulletin.