A new week of intense campaigning in France will begin on Monday, a day after the far-right National Rally party dominated the first round of legislative elections that drew an unusually large turnout and gave President Emmanuel Macron a sting.
Voters are being asked to elect their representatives to the 577-seat National Assembly, the country’s lower and more prominent house of parliament. They will return to the polls on July 7 for a second round of voting.
If a new majority of lawmakers opposed to Mr. Macron is included, he will be forced to appoint a political rival as prime minister, dramatically altering France’s domestic policy and upsetting its foreign policy. It will be especially so if he is forced to rule alongside Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of the National Rally.
If no clear majority emerges, the country could be headed for months of political deadlock or turmoil. Mr Macron, who has refused to resign, Cannot call fresh assembly elections for another year.
On Sunday, the nationalist, anti-immigrant National Rally Party was in the lead in a nationwide legislative election for the first time in its history, with about 34 percent of the vote, according to the first round of polls. The New Popular Front, a broad coalition of left-wing parties, received about 29 percent of the vote; Mr. Macron’s centrist Renaissance Party and its allies won about 22 percent; And mainstream conservatives got just 10 percent.
Here are four takeaways from the first round to help make sense of the elections so far.
Voters turned out to vote in unusually large numbers.
French legislative elections usually take place a few weeks after the presidential race and usually favor the party that wins the presidency. This reduces the likelihood of pulling assembly votes among voters, many of whom feel that the outcome is predetermined.
But this vote – a snap election unexpectedly called by Mr Macron – was different. The participation rate on Sunday was over 65 percent, much higher than the 47.5 percent recorded in the first round of the last parliamentary elections in 2022.
That jump reflects intense interest in the race for high office and a belief among voters that their vote could fundamentally change Mr. Macron’s presidential trajectory.
Final results are particularly difficult to predict.
For an outright majority, the party needs 289 seats, and France’s main polling institutes have released cautious estimates suggesting National Rally could win between 240 and 310 in the next round of voting.
They say the New Popular Front alliance could win between 150 and 200 seats, while Mr Macron’s Renaissance Party and its allies could win between 70 and 120.
But because of the nature of France’s electoral system it has always been difficult to use the results of the first round to predict the outcome of the second round. Assembly elections are, in essence, 577 separate races.
Under certain conditions, a candidate who receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round wins outright. On Sunday, polling agencies estimated that at least 60 candidates were directly elected.
But most seats are decided only after a second-round runoff between the top two vote-getters.
Pollsters estimated that the National Rally and its allies made it to at least 390 runoffs, the New Popular Front at least 370 and Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition at least 290.
A lot can happen between two rounds.
Further complicating matters, some districts may feature three or even four candidates in runoffs if they are able to garner enough votes. In general, this is rare. But on Sunday, due to a jump in participation, it was not.
In 2022, there were only eight three-way races. This time, polling agencies predicted there would be more than 200.
Many parties – particularly on the left – said they would field a third-place candidate to help prevent the far-right from winning. But Sunday night there was some confusion.
For instance, some of Mr. Macron’s allies suggested that his party or its allies should not withdraw a candidate in cases where it would help a candidate from the hard-left France Unbowed party. has been accused of anti-Semitism. Others said the far right had to be prevented at all costs.
A far-right government, or gridlock, could be next.
Two outcomes seem most likely.
Only the National Rally appears in a position to secure enough seats for an absolute majority. If that happens, Mr. Macron will have no choice but to appoint Mr. Bardella as prime minister. They will then form the cabinet and control domestic policy.
Presidents have traditionally retained control over foreign policy and defense matters in such circumstances, but the Constitution does not always provide clear guidelines.
It would put an anti-immigrant, Euroskeptic far-right party in charge of a country that is at the heart of the European project. Mr. Bardella could clash with Mr. Macron over issues such as France’s contribution to the European Union budget or support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Several thousand demonstrators, mainly from the left, gathered in central Paris on Sunday evening to protest the national rally.
If the national rally fails to secure an absolute majority – Mr Bardella has said he will not govern without one – Mr Macron could face a disorganized lower house, with two major factions on the right and left against him. His much-diminished centrist coalition, squeezed between the extremes, will be reduced to relative powerlessness.
Already, the government has announced it is suspending plans to tighten rules on unemployment benefits that angered labor unions. Gabriel Ettel, Mr. Macron’s prime minister, but all acknowledged in a speech that his party’s influence would soon decline.
“The stakes for this second round are to deprive the far right of an absolute majority,” he said. His party, he said, aims to have “enough weight” to work with other parties.
It is not yet clear who Mr Macron might appoint as prime minister if there is a hung parliament.
The president may try to form coalitions, but France is not as used to doing so as Germany. She is also unaccustomed to the notion of a caretaker government managing the day-to-day business of running the country until there is some political progress, as has happened in Belgium.
The far right has infiltrated all segments of the population.
The National Rally victory was another sign that the party’s years-long journey from the fringes of French politics to the golden halls of the French Republic was complete. It nearly doubled its vote share from 2022, when it received 18.68 percent of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections.
one Study A report released on Sunday revealed how much the party has expanded its voter base.
A study by the Ipsos Polling Institute, conducted among a representative sample of 10,000 registered voters before the election, found that the national rally electorate had “evolved and diversified”.
The party is still best among the working class, the polling agency said An analysisIt is noted that he received 57 percent of the blue-collar vote.
But its electoral base has expanded “significantly” beyond that category, Ipsos said, with the party increasing its scores by 15 to 20 percentage points among retirees, women, under-35s, higher-income voters and big cities. residents
“Finally, the national rally vote has spread,” the polling institute said, “creating a more homogeneous electorate than before, and one that is quite compatible with the entire French population.”
Ségolène Le Stradic Contributed to the report from Henin-Beaumont, France.